Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 4.631209 5.539051 6.549063 7.751916 9.141029 10.690368 12.544510
2025-02-23 3.155120 4.266580 5.633626 7.421922 9.680817 12.419087 15.966908
2025-03-02 2.244546 3.381734 4.907295 7.067113 10.003345 13.807828 19.052953
2025-03-09 1.749184 2.896024 4.553666 7.061463 10.682766 15.633169 22.801597
2025-03-16 1.406357 2.537343 4.285367 7.089011 11.354181 17.456411 26.663781
2025-03-23 1.142323 2.234695 4.031537 7.071343 11.917357 19.135636 30.425572
2025-03-30 0.890406 1.891224 3.643614 6.768297 11.981159 20.051358 33.110891
2025-04-06 0.740755 1.695052 3.461999 6.761835 12.488125 21.651111 36.913344
2025-04-13 0.614991 1.514519 3.273196 6.706686 12.891424 23.099211 40.563507
2025-04-20 0.560396 1.467223 3.321518 7.074834 14.041624 25.827289 46.422795
2025-04-27 0.499317 1.391465 3.300151 7.305122 14.962290 28.232052 51.903007
2025-05-04 0.456759 1.348428 3.336699 7.646717 16.108495 31.090383 58.305540
2025-05-11 0.388004 1.227870 3.195312 7.626890 16.600517 32.887586 63.098137
2025-05-18 0.313609 1.072595 2.950048 7.359279 16.589961 33.793012 66.416985
2025-05-25 0.249212 0.924772 2.692774 7.025852 16.407144 34.359885 69.162219
2025-06-01 0.213302 0.848990 2.594121 7.026580 16.893873 36.191640 74.278310
2025-06-08 0.184172 0.785239 2.513594 7.056163 17.439203 38.165723 79.765088
2025-06-15 0.157590 0.721112 2.419543 7.039292 17.879657 39.960899 85.016062
2025-06-22 0.125760 0.626371 2.221496 6.737671 17.661688 40.435494 87.786257
2025-06-29 0.107979 0.577660 2.145076 6.731315 18.102200 42.255788 93.239733
2025-07-06 0.091600 0.527978 2.055270 6.676408 18.422968 43.847481 98.328929
2025-07-13 0.086980 0.527406 2.118960 7.043134 19.767777 47.651122 107.993525
2025-07-20 0.079705 0.512128 2.132385 7.272536 20.801703 50.857215 116.614512